A Look Behind the Curtain at the Jobs Report

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Provided to you Exclusively by THE CANTO TEAM   For the week of Feb 08, 2010 | Vol. 8, Issue 6
Ted Canto Ted Canto
Senior Mortgage Consultant
Academy Mortgage
Office: 480-344-3671
Cell: 480-650-8602
Fax: 480-374-6958
E-Mail: ted@tedcanto.com
Website: www.tedcanto.com
Academy Mortgage Going the extra mile is my standard, not the exception
 
Last Week in Review

"BOTH OPTIMISTS AND PESSIMISTS CONTRIBUTE TO OUR SOCIETY. THE OPTIMIST INVENTS THE AIRPLANE, AND THE PESSIMIST - THE PARACHUTE." G.B. Stern. And last week's Jobs Report had something for both optimists and pessimists, as the numbers were both good and bad...depending on which survey you looked at, and what numbers you focused on.

First, the headline numbers: The Labor Department reported that there were 20,000 jobs lost in January, which was worse than expectations of 15,000 jobs gained. However, the Unemployment Rate came in lower at 9.7%, down from last month's read of 10.0%. But what do these numbers actually tell us?

Remember that the numbers in the Jobs Report come from two separate surveys: First, the Business Survey - also called the Establishment Survey or Current Employment Statistics Survey - which surveys about 140,000 businesses and government agencies. It uses something called the "birth/death ratio" to provide an estimate of the number of jobs gained or lost each month. This survey is used to report the headline number of jobs gained or lost. Now there is also the Household Survey, also known as the Current Population Survey, which uses actual phone calls to 50 - 60,000 households to gather its data. This survey is used to report the headline Unemployment Rate.

The Business Survey is very susceptible to inaccuracy, particularly during times when the labor market is substantially worsening or improving...and you don't need to look much further than all the revisions to prior reports to see how inaccurate the report seems to be. December's report was revised to 150,000 jobs lost, nearly doubling the original report of 85,000 job losses. Although November showed 60,000 additional gains - wait a minute - October's revisions showed another 100,000 jobs lost. And if that weren't enough, the Business Survey threw in a "Benchmark Revision", which indicated that there were an additional 900,000 jobs lost from March 2008 - March 2009 from what was previously reported!

-----------------------
Chart: Non-farm Payroll Change and Revisions

So what about the other report, the Household Survey? It gives us the headline Unemployment Rate, which was reported at 9.7%. That's an improvement over last month's reading of 10.0%. But this survey has its own job creation or loss number, just like the Business Survey does. The Household Survey showed that 540,000 jobs were created during January, which is really good news, and explains why the Unemployment Rate declined in the face of the Business Survey showing job losses.

There are definitely some glimmers of hope for the job market - but any way you look at it, the bottom line is that continued and significant improvements need to be seen in the labor market before the economy can be considered out of the woods.

Another important note for the week - Pending Home Sales for December were up significantly from November's reading, and up a healthy 10.9% over December 2008, as homebuyers take advantage of today's low rates and tax incentives. And speaking of low home loan rates, the Federal Reserve purchased $12 billion in Mortgage Backed Securities last week, bringing the total to $1.173 trillion since the program began in January of 2009...which leaves just $77 billion in purchases to be made over the next eight weeks until the program ends on March 31st. While home loan rates improved very slightly during this volatile week - don't forget that when the Fed is done buying, home loan rates will be very susceptible to moving higher. Please reach out to me to discuss how you or someone you know might benefit from current low rates, or the Homebuyers Tax Credit. The clock is ticking on both these fronts - so why wait?

THE NEW MILEAGE RATES ARE HERE! THE NEW MILEAGE RATES ARE HERE! OKAY...NEWS FROM THE IRS ISN'T NECESSARILY ALL THAT EXCITING, BUT YOU DON'T WANT TO MISS OUT ON A SINGLE TAX DEDUCTION YOU MIGHT HAVE COMING. CHECK OUT THIS WEEK'S MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE VIEW FOR THE DETAILS.

Forecast for the Week

We have a quiet week ahead when it comes to economic reports, but whether that's good or bad news remains to be seen. Be sure to look for Thursday's Initial Jobless Claims Report, as last week's numbers came in at 480,000, quite a bit worse than the 455,000 expected and the highest count since mid-December. Last week's Continuing Claims increased slightly to 4.6 million, and remember this...the Continuing Claims number doesn't even account for the nearly 6 million people whose Unemployment benefits have expired, and are now receiving Extended Emergency Unemployment benefits.

Also on tap for Thursday is the Retail Sales Report for January. This report is the most-timely indicator of broad consumer spending patterns, and it is important to see in which direction the numbers are moving. And the Treasury will be auctioning $40B in 3-year Notes on Tuesday, $25B in 10-years on Wednesday and $16B in 30-year Bonds on Thursday for a total of $81B. These auctions could move the markets, especially in the face of few scheduled economic reports.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

As you can see in the chart below, Bond prices have been improving of late, but there is tough technical resistance ahead. As always, I'll be watching closely - so give me a call this week if you'd like an update on the market action!

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Feb 05, 2010) Japanese Candlestick Chart
The Mortgage Market View...

New Mileage Rates for 2010

If you drive a car, truck or van for work, you'll want to make sure you know the standard mileage rates that the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has set for 2010. And remember, these mileage rates are not just used to calculate deductible costs for driving an automobile for business, but also for charitable, medical or moving purposes.

New for 2010

As of January 1, 2010, the standard mileage rates are as follows:

  • Businesses = 50 cents per mile driven
  • Medical or moving = 16.5 cents per mile driven
  • Charitable organizations = 14 cents per mile driven

 

Note: The 2010 rates are slightly lower than last year's, due to generally lower transportation costs as compared to a year ago.

Make Sure You Qualify

Before you calculate your deduction, make sure you qualify. The IRS reminds taxpayers that they cannot use the business standard mileage rate for a vehicle after using any depreciation method under the Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery System (MACRS) or after claiming a Section 179 deduction for that vehicle. In addition, the business standard mileage rate cannot be used for any vehicle used for hire or for more than four vehicles used simultaneously.

Additional Option

Although the IRS provides the standard mileage rate for ease and convenience, you're not required to use it. If you prefer, you can calculate the actual costs of using your vehicle instead of using the standard mileage rates.

Best yet - most people find that they save money on taxes by working with a tax professional. Let me know if you need a referral!

The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

Economic Calendar for the Week of February 08 - February 12

Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact
Wed. February 10 08:30 Balance of Trade Dec -$35.5B   -$36.4B Moderate
Thu. February 11 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 2/6 465K   480K Moderate
Thu. February 11 08:30 Retail Sales Jan 0.5%   -0.3% HIGH
Thu. February 11 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Jan 0.5%   -0.2% HIGH
Fri. February 12 10:00 Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM) Feb 75.0   74.4 Moderate
It is important that you know that I always have time for you, your friends & family members & that you would like to refer my services.
The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.
As your trusted advisor, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.
In the unlikely event that you no longer wish to receive these valuable market updates, please USE THIS LINK or email: ted@tedcanto.com
If you prefer to send your removal request by mail the address is:
Ted Canto
5304 E. Southern Ave.
Suite 101
Mesa, AZ 85206

Mortgage Success Source, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Success Source, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.
Equal Housing Lender          
0 commentsTED CANTO - www.tendayclose.com • February 08 2010 08:10PM

$8000 & $6500 Tax Credit for Homebuyers

8000 tax credit, 8000 homebuyer tax credit, 6500 tax credit 

$8000 & $6500 Tax Credit for Homebuyers

If you are like many Americans thinking about buying a home and would like to learn more about the $8,000 & $6500 Tax Credit and have questions, you will find this post useful.  You are not alone but your time is running out.  April 25, 2010 is approaching and contrary to some people's belief, the tax credit is not going to be extended again.  The Feds have signaled that the stimulus is working and there is no more need for an extension of the $8000 & $6500 tax credit, for many reasons that will distract us from the following information.

So what are the details to $8,000 First-time Home Buyer Tax Credit Expansion? (Read More)

1 commentTED CANTO - www.tendayclose.com • January 26 2010 12:06AM

Improving your FICO Scores

Improving your FICO Scores

For a long time, longer than I care to remember, FICO Scores aka credit scores have been an super secret formula where only the credit reporting bureaus (Experian, Transunion, Equifax) knew how they worked.  This, of course, is because they are the ones who created the system.  For too long, we all wondered how to improve our credit scores while mortgage professionals tripped over themselves trying to provide a homebuyer a logical answer.    However, it still remains a complex formula based on factors that we likely will never know how they actually work. 

Getting and maintaining good credit isn't rocket science, we just need to pay our bills on time, keep our balances low and sparingly take on new debt.

Bankruptcy

FICO's information demonstrates that a bankruptcy tends to do the most damage to a person's scores.  I can damage scores up to 240 points.

Credit Card/ Revolving Debt

Those with good or excellent credit - aka Prime Borrowers - put their scores at risk with a simple mistake. For example, someone with an average score of 680 who might make a payment 30 days late can experience a 60 to 80 point drop in their score.  However, someone with an excellent score of 780 - that same late payment can plummet their score by 90 to 100 points. (Read More)

1 commentTED CANTO - www.tendayclose.com • January 21 2010 12:48AM

90 Day FHA Flip Rule has been waived for 1 year!

FHA 90 Day Flip Rule Is Waived for 1 Year

HUD has ruled on waiving the 90 day seasoning financing contingency for buyers. What does this mean? 

Effective February 1st 2010, FHA/ HUD will not require that a seller of a property be on title for 90 days or more in order to sell the property to a borrower acquiring FHA financing.  This is an incredible opportunity for the majority of buyers & sellers in today's market.

Investment Properties, Flips, Foreclosures, Short Sales

This news is an important decision handed down by HUD as it propsed to dramatically assist the real estate market recovery. (READ MORE)

0 commentsTED CANTO - www.tendayclose.com • January 16 2010 02:09PM

FHA Short Sale Guidelines: FHA hands down it’s verdict on Short Sales

FHA hands down it's verdict on Short Sales

Short Sales Phoenix, FHA Short Sales, There are a lot of schools of thought but just last week, FHA finally laid out it's decision on how they will determine if a homeowner is eligible for FHA financing after a short sale.  As I have said before, there are probably 10% of lenders that wil do this, the other 90% will not.  Keep you eyes open as the lending industry is about to get more strict.  My guess is that the 10% will likely cease to exist.

You should be careful to imply that this is somehow set in stone.  There are way too many variables to risk ourselves in implying that our client "IS" going to get into a home in 2-3 years.

This mortgagee letter provides guidance to lenders and underwriters regarding borrower eligibility when:

  • a previously owned property was sold for less than what was owed (short sale), or
  • there is principal write down of indebtedness that cannot be refinanced into a new mortgage (short pay off).

Summary - FHA Guidance on Short Sales (Read More)

My Blog Sites:

www.tedcanto.com

www.thecantoteam.com

www.arizonamortgageteam.com

www.academymortgage.com/tedcanto

Ted Canto

Sr. Mortgage Consultant

Academy Mortgage

 

2 commentsTED CANTO - www.tendayclose.com • January 12 2010 09:05PM

Job Market Picture Requires Look Beneath Surface

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Provided to you Exclusively by THE CANTO TEAM  

For the week of Jan 11, 2010 | Vol. 8, Issue 2

Ted Canto

Ted Canto
Senior Mortgage Consultant
Academy Mortgage
Office: 480-344-3671
Cell: 480-650-8602
Fax: 480-374-6958
E-Mail: ted@tedcanto.com
Website: www.tedcanto.com

Academy Mortgage

Going the extra mile is my standard, not the exception

 

Last Week in Review


"THERE ARE NO SECRETS IN LIFE, JUST HIDDEN TRUTHS THAT LIE BENEATH THE SURFACE." From the Showtime TV hit, "Dexter". The highly anticipated Jobs Report arrived last Friday morning, showing 85,000 jobs lost during December...and while this was a bit worse than expected, the report also carried some good news, in that the prior month's revisions showed that November actually had a final tabulation of job gains for the month, for the first time since December 2007. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate remained stable at 10%. While this all seems to indicate some level of improvement in the labor market - you do have to look beneath the surface to clearly understand the present realities for the labor market.

Let's start with the headline number of 85,000 jobs lost. This comes from what is called the "business survey", which uses many estimation tools, including the birth-death ratio of businesses, i.e. how many businesses were created or closed. The mechanics in coming up with the business survey allow the information to be gathered rapidly, but it also makes the information far less than accurate. On the other hand, there is also a "household survey", where a sampling of households receive actual phone calls. Although the household number is not used by the Labor Department for their headline numbers of job losses or creations, some deem it to be a bit more accurate. The household survey paints a bit of a darker - but perhaps more realistic - picture, showing a whopping 589,000 jobs lost. But let's dig deeper still.

The Labor Department does use the household survey to calculate the Unemployment Rate - and remember, it stayed stable at 10% - but the calculation is determined by how many people are presently in the workforce. And the household survey indicated that last month, 661,000 people left the workforce.

Whoa - what does "leaving the workforce" mean? And where exactly are they going? Let's take a closer look to understand.

The Labor Department's definition of this is a "discouraged worker", who has not looked for a job during the past four weeks. Based on this definition, there are a few contributing factors that would help us understand why this would indicate such a large number of people "exiting the workforce." And remember, more people exiting the workforce means less people counted as unemployed, and this number alone last month would have contributed to almost a half percent increase in the rate of unemployment from 10% to almost 10.5%.

So let's talk about these contributing factors. First, frigid temperatures and piles of snow during December played a role in keeping job seekers home. Add to that the holiday season, as well as travel for family gatherings and vacations during this time, also contributing to pushing off the job search. And perhaps most importantly playing a role are the extended unemployment benefits - up to 99 weeks worth - which could also play into the decision to not seek work. Put this all together, and it might clarify the large so-called exodus from the workforce, which masks the true Unemployment Rate.

Overall - the job picture is still weak, at best. Census hiring in the next few months - although temporary - should boost job creations, which in turn may lead to upside Job Report surprises. This could lead to some tough days ahead for Bonds and home loan rates - count on me to be watching closely, and standing by to advise.

-----------------------
Chart: 2009 Job Gains or Losses (In the Thousands)

IT'S NO SECRET THAT MANY AMERICANS MAKE NEW YEARS RESOLUTIONS RELATED TO THEIR HEALTH AND FITNESS - AND THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT CAN BE SIMPLE. READ ON FOR A MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE VIEW ARTICLE DESCRIBING A FEW SIMPLE TRIED AND TRUE EXERCISES THAT ARE EASY...AND WORK.

Forecast for the Week


The major reports for this week start in earnest on Thursday when the Retail Sales Report arrives, being the most-timely indicator of broad consumer spending patterns. Initial Jobless Claims will also be released on Thursday, and will likely be a hot topic after last week's weaker-than-expected Jobs Report. Friday will bring another healthy round of economic news when we get a look at the Consumer Price Index, Industrial Production, and the Consumer Sentiment Index.

We may also see some volatility depending on how the markets receive more supply...via the Treasury Department auctions of $10 Billion in 10-yr Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities on Monday, $40 Billion in 3-year Notes on Tuesday, $21 Billion in 10-year Notes on Wednesday, and $13 Billion in 30-year Notes on Thursday.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds rallied early last week but were halted by a technical ceiling of resistance at the 200-Day Moving Average and were subsequently pushed lower, meaning home loan rates worsened.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Jan 08, 2010)

Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market View...


Exercises That Don't Cost a Dime

Getting back in shape after the holidays is often tops on people's New Year's Resolution list. Here are some exercises you can do at home...and for free...to help kick start the new year.

Push-Ups
Tried and true, push-ups are perfect for toning the chest, triceps and shoulders. If you're not ready for the standard military push-up, try doing them from your knees, making sure to keep your ankles crossed.

Sit-Ups
Start by lying on your back with your knees bent and feet placed flat on the floor. Feel free to wedge your toes underneath a couch or bed frame in order to keep your feet planted. With your hands behind your head, begin your sit-up. But, instead of going all the way up to your knees, stop halfway and pause before returning to the ground. Doing so alleviates tension in the lower back, while isolating the middle and upper abdominals.

Leg Lifts
Lie flat on your back with your feet together and the palms of your hands on the ground next to you. Keeping your legs straight, raise them until they are perpendicular to the ground and your toes are pointing straight in the air. This is a great exercise for strengthening and toning the lower abdominals.

Lunges
Stand with your feet spread shoulder width apart. With your hands on your hips, step forward with your right leg and take your left knee to the ground. Return to the initial standing position and step forward with your left foot, taking your right knee to the ground. Return to standing and repeat this series of moves. Increase the difficulty by holding dumbbells during the exercise. If you don't have dumbbells, try using jugs of water or something similar from your pantry.

Dips
This is a great exercise for both your triceps and shoulders. Utilizing a sturdy chair or bench, sit at the edge of the seat with your legs straightforward, heals to the ground and toes pointing up. Your hands should firmly grasp the edge of the seat, shoulder width apart. Supporting yourself with your arms, slide your butt off the edge of the seat. Use your arms to lower yourself until your triceps are parallel to the ground. Then push yourself back up. Keep repeating this motion.

Calve Raises
On your toes, balance yourself on the edge of a bottom step. The soles of your feet, as well as your heels, should be hanging off the edge. Grab on to a banister or door jam for support and lower your heals toward the ground, as far as they'll go. Now, raise yourself up so that you are standing on your toes. Repeat this motion. This exercise works wonders for toning calve muscles.

For all of these exercises, start with one or two sets of 10 to 20 repetitions. As you get stronger, increase the number of sets and repetitions, as well as decrease the amount of time spent resting between sets.

You'll feel great and look great in plenty of time for summer!

The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar


Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

Economic Calendar for the Week of January 11 - January 15

Date

ET

Economic Report

For

Estimate

Actual

Prior

Impact

Tue. January 12

08:30

Balance of Trade

Nov

-$34.8B

 

-$32.9B

Moderate

Wed. January 13

02:00

Beige Book

 

 

 

 

Moderate

Wed. January 13

10:30

Crude Inventories

1/8

NA

 

1.33M

Moderate

Thu. January 14

08:30

Jobless Claims (Initial)

1/09

433K

 

434K

Moderate

Thu. January 14

08:30

Retail Sales

Dec

0.4%

 

1.3%

HIGH

Thu. January 14

08:30

Retail Sales ex-auto

Dec

0.3%

 

1.2%

HIGH

Fri. January 15

10:00

Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM)

Jan

73.8

 

72.5

Moderate

Fri. January 15

09:15

Industrial Production

Dec

0.6%

 

0.8%

Moderate

Fri. January 15

09:15

Capacity Utilization

Dec

71.8%

 

71.3%

Moderate

Fri. January 15

08:30

Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Dec

0.1%

 

0.0%

HIGH

Fri. January 15

08:30

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Dec

0.2%

 

0.4%

HIGH

Fri. January 15

08:30

Empire State Index

Jan

11.25

 

2.55

Moderate

It is important that you know that I always have time for you, your friends & family members & that you would like to refer my services.

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.

As your trusted advisor, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

Mortgage Success Source, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Success Source, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.

  

Equal Housing Lender          

0 commentsTED CANTO - www.tendayclose.com • January 11 2010 11:40AM

R.I.P. - How Jim Rohn had changed my life..

Jim Rohn | World Renowned Business Philosopher

As you know, our mentor and friend Jim Rohn passed away December 5, 2009.  I couldn't help to get a little choked up about the idea that my mentor had passed away after helping me to not only look at ways to improve my business rather how he helped me look at who I am and how I want to be remembered when the good Lord decides that it is my time to do his work. 

I remember being at a crossroad financially and spiritually.  I was handed a CD by a friend. I popped it into my car CD player.  This was the beginning of a new me.  I listened and at every word, this old wise and gentle man was speaking the very experience I was going through.  I listened to Jim Rohn CD 100's of times.  At every day I was feeling a bit de-moralized, unmotivated, or was in need of a kick in the pants, Jim would tell me like it is.  He told me that "To be successful you don't need to do extraordinary things, you just need to do ordinary things extraordinarily well."

 This may not be the best place to tell you (a stranger) this but to understand how Mr. Rohn affected me and thousands of others is to not leave any empty spaces in the story.  I was on the verge of divorce (for all the wrong reasons, financially in the dumps, spiritually.. well let's just say I had a long hard talk with the Lord and he came up winning.  Before that that day, I had no direction and personally I didn't care for any.  Then I heard Jim tell me "You cannot change your destination overnight, but you can change your direction overnight" He went on to tell me "It is the set of the sails, not the direction of the wind that determines which way we will go." 

From that day forward, I worked on my marriage, my financial well-being, my relationship with the Creator and I found an immense reward awaiting on the othe side of the road.  Jim's words helped me improve the person I was and he is directly a part of who I am today.  I realized many things by his help but importantly, that the world was in no need of someone who did not need the world.  For what do you have to offer if you want to live your life with no direction, no value to mankind or more importantly to your family and peers?  This ladies and gentlemen is the secret to a rich life. 

Funny!  My 40 year mile marker of my journey was changed by a man who I never met.

God Bless you Jim and may you continue changing lives, one soul at a time!

Ted Canto

AZ Residential Lender

www.tedcanto.com

www.academymortgage.com/tedcanto

 

53 commentsTED CANTO - www.tendayclose.com • January 08 2010 04:53PM

A Volatile Week Ends a Volatile Year

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Provided to you Exclusively by THE CANTO TEAM  

For the week of Jan 04, 2010 | Vol. 8, Issue 1

Ted Canto

Ted Canto
Senior Mortgage Consultant
Academy Mortgage
Office: 480-344-3671
Cell: 480-650-8602
Fax: 480-374-6958
E-Mail: ted@tedcanto.com
Website: www.tedcanto.com

Academy Mortgage

Going the extra mile is my standard, not the exception

 

Last Week in Review


"We will open the book. Its pages are blank. We are going to put words on them ourselves. The book is called Opportunity and its first chapter is New Year's Day." Edith Lovejoy Pierce. And as we begin a New Year, fresh with opportunity - here's what you need to know about the last week of 2009.

The holiday shortened week had some fireworks, and not just those ringing in the New Year. The Treasury Department auctioned a whopping $118 Billion in T-Notes last week, and the added supply helped bring on some volatility in Bonds. And although the financial markets in general have been quite volatile of late anyways, the potential for increased volatility is typically greater during a holiday week. This is because trading volume levels decrease, and with fewer traders and investors pushing transactions, it opens the door for exacerbated market moves, as one large trade can cause prices to rise or fall more sharply.

In fact, volatility was present through a good part of 2009 - not to mention the last decade. As you can see in the chart below, Stocks experienced a roller coaster ride during 2009, hitting Bear market lows in March...only to soar 60% higher since March 9th.

-----------------------
Chart: Dow Jones Industrial Average

Meanwhile, 2009 also brought some of the best home loan rates ever seen in the history of the US, but things have worsened over the last month. This is in part because the Federal Reserve is winding down their Mortgage Backed Security purchasing program...right at a time when there is an increased volume of Mortgage Backed Securities coming to market.

So why are there more coming to market right now? It takes about four months for home loan originations to become securities - and summer originations were light, allowing the decreased Fed purchases during the fall to still help handle the flow of Mortgage Backed Securities coming to market at that time. But loan origination volume increased in late summer and early fall, due to lower home loan rates as well as the perceived expiration of the Home Buyer Tax Credit, which has since been extended. This increased volume of home loans are now securitized and hitting the markets, at a time when the Fed is buying less.

As with any item, when there is lots of supply - in this case, the increased volume of Mortgage Backed Securities - and diminishing demand - i.e. the Fed buying less and less - Economics 101 tells us that the price of that item will subsequently go down. And as Mortgage Backed Security or Mortgage Bond prices go down, home loan rates go up, which is what we saw happen throughout December. While rates were able to end last week at about the same place as they began the week, they did worsen about .50% from the beginning of December to the end.

THE NEW YEAR IS THE PERFECT TIME FOR A FINANCIAL CHECK-UP, SO MAKE SURE TO GET IN TOUCH WITH ME TO SEE IF STILL LOW HOME LOAN RATES COULD BENEFIT YOU OR SOMEONE YOU KNOW. AND SPEAKING OF SMART FINANCIAL DECISIONS, CHECK OUT THIS WEEK'S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW FOR GREAT TIPS ON SAVING MONEY DURING THE COMING YEAR.

Forecast for the Week


The first major economic report of the New Year will come on Friday, with the Labor Department's official Jobs Report for December. Last month's Jobs Report showed that only 11,000 jobs were lost in November, despite expectations of 125,000 jobs lost. This marked the least number of jobs lost in nearly two years, since December 2007. In addition, the Unemployment Rate improved to 10.0%, when expectations were for it to remain at the 10.2% level.

Remember, though, that we need to create an additional 125,000 jobs each month just to keep up with population growth...so there is still quite a ways to go before we're out of the woods on the employment front. And while last week's Initial Jobless Claims number showed that new Unemployment Claims were reported at the lowest weekly reading since July of 2008, the holidays and large snowfall in many parts of the country may have prevented people from getting out to the unemployment office to file their claims...so this may well have skewed the reading. The bottom line is that the labor market is a key component to our economy's recovery, so both Thursday's Initial Jobless Claims number and Friday's Jobs Report will be important to watch.

Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. As you can see in the chart below, Bond prices have been on a worsening trend of late, meaning home loan rates have moved higher. As the New Year begins, remember you can count on me to be watching closely as always - and I look forward to hearing from you or any of your friends, family members, neighbors or coworkers with any questions you might have.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Jan 01, 2010)

Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market View...


"Resolve" to Stop Wasting Money

The New Year is the perfect time to take a look at your spending habits and "resolve" to avoid wasting money where you don't have to. Here are some main areas that many of us waste money unnecessarily...and some simple steps to ensure a bright financial 2010.

Meals at the Workplace
Working Americans spend an average of $6 when they buy their lunch at work. The average cost drops to $2 when we bring our lunch from home. That's a difference of $4 a day, or $20 a week, or over $1,000 a year. Consider adding this savings to your savings account, and after just a few months you'll really see the difference add up.

Utilize the Public Library
By obtaining a library card, you can save on books, magazines, and especially DVD rentals. If you average 3 DVD rentals a month, you're spending approximately $144 a year. That's $144 that could be deposited into your bank account. For every book you check out, find out what it would have cost if you'd bought it. Deposit that amount into your account, too.

Don't be Afraid to Ask for Discounts
If you're paying bills or buying items such as airline tickets based solely on the price you're quoted, you could be wasting money. Many companies provide discounts on goods and services but only for those customers who request them. It never hurts to ask so start asking.

Save Gas
Consult the owner's manual of your car and learn about the manufacturer's recommendations for optimal gas mileage. Put the suggestions into action and see what happens. After a month, you should be able to see if you're spending less on fuel. Take the savings and stash it away.

Sell Your Junk
Come Springtime, go through your closets, garage, and CD collection. Figure out which items you no longer use. You can either hold a garage sale or locate stores which buy and sell used merchandise, and sell the items to them.

Do Away with Disposable
From razors and batteries to paper towels and plastic bags, your home is filled with products which are meant to be thrown away. Most of these disposable items have either a permanent or semi-disposable counterpart. Switching over to these more durable items can yield a savings of $4 a week or $200 a year.

Get the Most Out of Your Utilities
Many of us are overspending on our utility bills for no other reason than our own apathy. If you haven't already switched over to low-flow shower heads and toilets it's probably time to do so. Also, get into the habit of turning off lights when not in use. Did you know that most utility companies offer a free online energy audit? This way you can see exactly where you're wasting money.

Here's to a bright financial future in 2010!

The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar


Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

Economic Calendar for the Week of January 04 - January 08

Date

ET

Economic Report

For

Estimate

Actual

Prior

Impact

Mon. January 04

10:00

ISM Index

Dec

54.0

 

53.6

HIGH

Tue. January 05

10:00

Pending Home Sales

Dec

-3.0%

 

3.7%

Moderate

Wed. January 06

10:00

ISM Services Index

Dec

50.5

 

48.7

Moderate

Wed. January 06

10:30

Crude Inventories

12/31

NA

 

-1.54M

Moderate

Thu. January 07

08:30

Jobless Claims (Initial)

1/02

445K

 

432K

Moderate

Fri. January 08

08:30

Average Work Week

Dec

33.2

 

33.1

HIGH

Fri. January 08

08:30

Hourly Earnings

Dec

0.2%

 

0.1%

HIGH

Fri. January 08

08:30

Non-farm Payrolls

Dec

Zero

 

-11K

HIGH

Fri. January 08

08:30

Unemployment Rate

Dec

10.1%

 

10.0%

HIGH

It is important that you know that I always have time for you, your friends & family members & that you would like to refer my services.

  

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.

  

As your trusted advisor, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

  

In the unlikely event that you no longer wish to receive these valuable market updates, please USE THIS LINK or email: ted@tedcanto.com

  

If you prefer to send your removal request by mail the address is:

  

Ted Canto
5304 E. Southern Ave.
Suite 101
Mesa, AZ 85206

Mortgage Success Source, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Success Source, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.

  

Equal Housing Lender          

2 commentsTED CANTO - www.tendayclose.com • January 04 2010 08:31PM

Halls Decked With Lots of Economic News

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Provided to you Exclusively by THE CANTO TEAM  

For the week of Dec 21, 2009 | Vol. 7, Issue 51

Ted Canto

Ted Canto
Senior Mortgage Consultant
Academy Mortgage
Office: 480-344-3671
Cell: 480-650-8602
Fax: 480-374-6958
E-Mail: ted@tedcanto.com
Website: www.tedcanto.com

Academy Mortgage

Going the extra mile is my standard, not the exception

 

Last Week in Review


"ALL GOOD THINGS MUST COME TO AN END..." Or so the popular saying goes. And last week, the Fed reiterated once again that their Mortgage Backed Security (MBS) purchase program...the program that has helped keep home loan rates low for much of the last year...will end on March 31, 2010 as previously stated. Here's the lowdown on what this means, and all the latest news impacting home loan rates and the markets.

Last Wednesday during their regularly scheduled meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Federal Reserve kept the Fed Funds Rate unchanged. But history has shown that when the Fed has left rates too low for an extended period of time, there is a price to be paid, via higher inflation. Yet if the accommodation is removed too early, it can derail an already fragile recovery. The Fed continues to walk this tightrope, trying to get it "just right."

Along with this decision, the Fed emphasized and reminded that their MBS purchase program will still end on their already revised deadline date of March 31, 2010. Why is this significant? Let's look at the numbers from last week to get an idea. The Fed purchased $16B in MBS in the latest week bringing the year-to-date total to $1.087T. This means there is $163B left to purchase before March 31, which in turn means the Fed will purchase about $11.5B on average each week through the end of the buying program. This is less than half of what the Fed was buying regularly throughout 2009 and a 1/3 less than what the Fed has been buying in recent weeks.

So why does this point to higher rates around the corner? When there is lots of supply and diminishing demand, the price of that item will subsequently go down - it's Economics 101. So, when Bond prices start to decrease from the diminishing demand of the Fed's purchases, home loan rates will naturally be likely to increase. Give me a call if you want to see how you can benefit from the current low rate environment...before it becomes too late.

In other news, there was mixed inflation data last week, as the Producer Price Index (which measures wholesale inflation) came in significantly higher than expected. However, the Consumer Price Index was reported in line with expectations, signaling that inflation remains low - at least for now. Inflation will ultimately creep back into the economy - and as the arch-enemy of Bonds and MBS - will also contribute to rising interest rates.

Housing Starts for November were in line with estimates and, as you can see in the chart below, the housing sector seems to have stabilized after bottoming out at 458,000 Housing Starts in April.

-----------------------
Chart: Housing Starts

Meanwhile Building Permits, which are a leading indicator of housing construction, reached the highest level seen in the past year. This is encouraging, and the extension of the Home Buyer Tax Credit should provide an added boost for home sales over the next few months.

Bonds and rates were able to improve in the middle of the week and as a result, Bonds and rates ended the week about where they began.

THE HOLIDAY SEASON WILL EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END, BUT YOUR HOLIDAY MEMORIES DON'T HAVE TO! CHECK OUT THIS WEEK'S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW FOR GREAT TIPS TO HELP YOU TAKE GREAT HOLIDAY PICTURES.

Forecast for the Week


The markets will enter holiday mode later this week, with both the Stock and Bond markets closing early on Thursday and remaining closed all day Friday in observance of the Christmas holiday, but not before several important reports are released.

First, we'll get a read on the housing market with Tuesday's Existing Home Sales Report and Wednesday's New Home Sales Report. Tuesday also brings a read on the economy with the broadest measure of economic activity via the Gross Domestic Product Report.

There is still more news on Wednesday with the Fed's favorite gauge of inflation, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index, found within the Personal Income Report. With last week's mixed inflation news, this will be an especially important report to watch.

And Thursday could bring some big news just before the markets close by way of the Durable Goods Report, which gives us an update on consumer and business buying behavior on big ticket items that last for an extended period of time. A look at the job market will come with the Initial Jobless Claims Report. Last week's Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims numbers were higher than expected, showing that the labor market is still struggling.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and rates were able to regain some ground last week. I'll be watching to see if this continues.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Dec 18, 2009)

Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market View...


7 Tips for Taking Perfect Holiday Pictures

Over the next week, families and friends from across the country will come together to reminisce, reconnect, and enjoy the warmth of the holiday season. When it's over, only two things will remain: the memories of those celebrations and the photographs that bring those memories to life.

Unfortunately, some holiday photos don't turn out quite as vivid or emotional as the moments they depict. But with the 7 simple tips below, you can help eliminate the disappointment of a photo gone wrong.

  1. Look 'em in the eye. One of the best ways to capture the true spirit and emotion of holiday moments is to zero in on the eyes of family and friends. That means holding the camera at eye level and focusing in tightly on the twinkle in their eyes and smiles on their faces. And, when taking pictures of children or even the family pet, don't forget to lower yourself to their level.
  2. Brighten up the holidays...even when you're outside. One of the most important aspects to consider in any picture is the lighting. Harsh overhead lights can cast odd shadows on a person's face. And bright lights can make a person's wrinkles or subtle flaws stand out more in the picture than they do in real life. To help reduce these negative illusions, try using as much natural light as possible. If you're indoors, ask your friends to move closer to the natural light coming in through a window and turn off your flash to capture the vibrant colors better.
    If you're outside, remember that the soft, warm light that occurs during the early morning, late afternoon, and on cloudy days is better than the overpowering mid-day sun. If you must shoot during mid-day, use your flash to help brighten faces and eliminate those unpleasant shadows from the sun.
  3. Keep your distance. When you do need a flash, make sure that you know the optimal distance that your camera's flash can travel. Too often, people make the mistake of standing out of range, which can be the same as using no flash at all. For most cameras, the maximum distance between you and your subject should be approximately 15 feet (or five big steps away). But, just to be safe, you should check your camera's manual or try to stay within 10 feet to make sure your photographs don't turn out dark and dreary.
  4. Don't center every image. Often, centering the subject can result in a boring or lackluster photo. Instead, try to shift your subject slightly to the left or the right. The empty space that is left in the frame will help draw the eye to the subject and add a quality of balance and interest that a centered photo cannot duplicate.
  5. Don't just take photographs...direct them. Even if you're just taking a photo of a few people, take a moment to move them around to create interest and fill the frame. Also, don't hesitate to move distracting objects out of the background or to move the subjects to another part of the room altogether.
  6. Get the red out. Although some cameras come with red-eye reduction features, the best way to eliminate this problem is to stop it before it starts. To do that, have your subject look toward the camera, but not directly at the lens or the flash. So, before you snap the picture, take a moment to say "look here" and point out a spot just below your camera for them to focus on.
  7. Snap the picture early to capture the action. Most cameras today include a variety of features that are automatically processed before a picture is taken. That means your camera takes an extra second to process the photo and adjust its settings accordingly. So, try to snap the shot a half-a-second early.

With these tips and a little practice, your photographs will capture the vivid colors, emotions, and joy of this holiday season in a way that brings those memories to life every time you look at them.

The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar


Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

Economic Calendar for the Week of December 21 - December 25

Date

ET

Economic Report

For

Estimate

Actual

Prior

Impact

Tue. December 22

08:30

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Q3

2.7%

 

2.8%

Moderate

Tue. December 22

10:00

Existing Home Sales

Nov

6.30M

 

6.10M

Moderate

Wed. December 23

10:30

Crude Inventories

12/18

NA

 

NA

Moderate

Wed. December 23

10:00

New Home Sales

Nov

440K

 

430K

Moderate

Wed. December 23

10:00

Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM)

Dec

73.9

 

73.4

Moderate

Wed. December 23

08:30

Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE

YOY

NA

 

1.4%

HIGH

Wed. December 23

08:30

Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE

Nov

0.1%

 

0.2%

HIGH

Wed. December 23

08:30

Personal Spending

Nov

0.7%

 

0.7%

Moderate

Wed. December 23

08:30

Personal Income

Nov

0.5%

 

0.2%

Moderate

Thu. December 24

08:30

Jobless Claims (Initial)

12/19

NA

 

480K

Moderate

Thu. December 24

08:30

Durable Goods Orders

Nov

0.4%

 

-0.6%

Moderate

It is important that you know that I always have time for you, your friends & family members & that you would like to refer my services.

  

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.

  

As your trusted advisor, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

  

In the unlikely event that you no longer wish to receive these valuable market updates, please USE THIS LINK or email: ted@tedcanto.com

  

If you prefer to send your removal request by mail the address is:

  

Ted Canto
5304 E. Southern Ave.
Suite 101
Mesa, AZ 85206

Mortgage Success Source, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Success Source, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.

  

Equal Housing Lender          

1 commentTED CANTO - www.tendayclose.com • December 23 2009 01:42PM

Your Conventional Loans May Be in Jeopardy as soon as NOW!!

As you are all aware, DU release 8.0 is rolling out this week. 

This means that if your loan was approved through the AUS (Automated Underwriting System) with a 47%-56% debt ratio and has not closed or let's suppose waiting for a Short Sale approval, you risk that the loan will not be approved. 

Why?

The new AUS guidelines are now restricting the buyer to a maximum of 45%.  It is not flexible and does & will not base the decision on the strength of the buyer. The days of stretching the ratios to someone who had compensating factors are over.  In my opinion, it will not be long before FHA follows suit (Which always tends to be the case). 

So what do you do?

Make your negotiators and the asset managers understand that this will ultimately affect their books if they don't put themselves in gear.  Do not be passive and light a candle and make the "Sales Prayer".  It's lame, it doesn't help anyone and it surely reduces the chance the deal will get accepted and funded.

I know what you are thinking..  "But Ted, we don't want to upset our negotiator or the asset manager."  You might as well say "I,m scaaaarrrredddd!!" and go cry in the corner.  Of course not because it would be useless and imagining it, quite funny but embarassing.  You have NOTHING TO LOSE!!  The deal is going south anyway.

This will cause a ripple in transactions that are pending approval of some sort.  Imagine all the deals that are in the waiting line.  Wooo Eeeeeyy!!   Do not be that transaction.  Get on top of this and fast.

There are some banks already implementing these guidelines as of yesterday, so you may want to look into your transactions asap.

If you did not receive your final DU run by a date prior to the last couple of days, then the risk of losing that approval will be exposed.  We do not have specific information that confirms that a DU run / approval that was previously run on version 7.0 / 7.1 will be able to run through DU on the older version.   To err on the side of caution is the right approach in this case. 

There are a lot of other changes that will surely affect your transactions but this post is not about that, it is more of a wake up call.  If you are interested in more of the finer details, you can visit Fannie Mae at: https://www.efanniemae.com/sf/guides/duguides/pdf/current/rndodu80.pdf

 

29 commentsTED CANTO - www.tendayclose.com • December 16 2009 11:49PM