Provided to you Exclusively by THE CANTO TEAM  

For the week of Jan 11, 2010 | Vol. 8, Issue 2

Ted Canto
Senior Mortgage Consultant
Academy Mortgage
Office: 480-344-3671
Cell: 480-650-8602
Fax: 480-374-6958
E-Mail: ted@tedcanto.com
Website: www.tedcanto.com

Going the extra mile is my standard, not the exception

Last Week in Review

"THERE ARE NO SECRETS IN LIFE, JUST HIDDEN TRUTHS THAT LIE BENEATH THE SURFACE." From the Showtime TV hit, "Dexter". The highly anticipated Jobs Report arrived last Friday morning, showing 85,000 jobs lost during December...and while this was a bit worse than expected, the report also carried some good news, in that the prior month's revisions showed that November actually had a final tabulation of job gains for the month, for the first time since December 2007. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate remained stable at 10%. While this all seems to indicate some level of improvement in the labor market - you do have to look beneath the surface to clearly understand the present realities for the labor market.

Let's start with the headline number of 85,000 jobs lost. This comes from what is called the "business survey", which uses many estimation tools, including the birth-death ratio of businesses, i.e. how many businesses were created or closed. The mechanics in coming up with the business survey allow the information to be gathered rapidly, but it also makes the information far less than accurate. On the other hand, there is also a "household survey", where a sampling of households receive actual phone calls. Although the household number is not used by the Labor Department for their headline numbers of job losses or creations, some deem it to be a bit more accurate. The household survey paints a bit of a darker - but perhaps more realistic - picture, showing a whopping 589,000 jobs lost. But let's dig deeper still.

The Labor Department does use the household survey to calculate the Unemployment Rate - and remember, it stayed stable at 10% - but the calculation is determined by how many people are presently in the workforce. And the household survey indicated that last month, 661,000 people left the workforce.

Whoa - what does "leaving the workforce" mean? And where exactly are they going? Let's take a closer look to understand.

The Labor Department's definition of this is a "discouraged worker", who has not looked for a job during the past four weeks. Based on this definition, there are a few contributing factors that would help us understand why this would indicate such a large number of people "exiting the workforce." And remember, more people exiting the workforce means less people counted as unemployed, and this number alone last month would have contributed to almost a half percent increase in the rate of unemployment from 10% to almost 10.5%.

So let's talk about these contributing factors. First, frigid temperatures and piles of snow during December played a role in keeping job seekers home. Add to that the holiday season, as well as travel for family gatherings and vacations during this time, also contributing to pushing off the job search. And perhaps most importantly playing a role are the extended unemployment benefits - up to 99 weeks worth - which could also play into the decision to not seek work. Put this all together, and it might clarify the large so-called exodus from the workforce, which masks the true Unemployment Rate.

Overall - the job picture is still weak, at best. Census hiring in the next few months - although temporary - should boost job creations, which in turn may lead to upside Job Report surprises. This could lead to some tough days ahead for Bonds and home loan rates - count on me to be watching closely, and standing by to advise.

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Chart: 2009 Job Gains or Losses (In the Thousands)

IT'S NO SECRET THAT MANY AMERICANS MAKE NEW YEARS RESOLUTIONS RELATED TO THEIR HEALTH AND FITNESS - AND THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT CAN BE SIMPLE. READ ON FOR A MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE VIEW ARTICLE DESCRIBING A FEW SIMPLE TRIED AND TRUE EXERCISES THAT ARE EASY...AND WORK.

Forecast for the Week

The major reports for this week start in earnest on Thursday when the Retail Sales Report arrives, being the most-timely indicator of broad consumer spending patterns. Initial Jobless Claims will also be released on Thursday, and will likely be a hot topic after last week's weaker-than-expected Jobs Report. Friday will bring another healthy round of economic news when we get a look at the Consumer Price Index, Industrial Production, and the Consumer Sentiment Index.

We may also see some volatility depending on how the markets receive more supply...via the Treasury Department auctions of $10 Billion in 10-yr Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities on Monday, $40 Billion in 3-year Notes on Tuesday, $21 Billion in 10-year Notes on Wednesday, and $13 Billion in 30-year Notes on Thursday.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds rallied early last week but were halted by a technical ceiling of resistance at the 200-Day Moving Average and were subsequently pushed lower, meaning home loan rates worsened.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Jan 08, 2010)

The Mortgage Market View...

Exercises That Don't Cost a Dime

Getting back in shape after the holidays is often tops on people's New Year's Resolution list. Here are some exercises you can do at home...and for free...to help kick start the new year.

Push-Ups
Tried and true, push-ups are perfect for toning the chest, triceps and shoulders. If you're not ready for the standard military push-up, try doing them from your knees, making sure to keep your ankles crossed.

Sit-Ups
Start by lying on your back with your knees bent and feet placed flat on the floor. Feel free to wedge your toes underneath a couch or bed frame in order to keep your feet planted. With your hands behind your head, begin your sit-up. But, instead of going all the way up to your knees, stop halfway and pause before returning to the ground. Doing so alleviates tension in the lower back, while isolating the middle and upper abdominals.

Leg Lifts
Lie flat on your back with your feet together and the palms of your hands on the ground next to you. Keeping your legs straight, raise them until they are perpendicular to the ground and your toes are pointing straight in the air. This is a great exercise for strengthening and toning the lower abdominals.

Lunges
Stand with your feet spread shoulder width apart. With your hands on your hips, step forward with your right leg and take your left knee to the ground. Return to the initial standing position and step forward with your left foot, taking your right knee to the ground. Return to standing and repeat this series of moves. Increase the difficulty by holding dumbbells during the exercise. If you don't have dumbbells, try using jugs of water or something similar from your pantry.

Dips
This is a great exercise for both your triceps and shoulders. Utilizing a sturdy chair or bench, sit at the edge of the seat with your legs straightforward, heals to the ground and toes pointing up. Your hands should firmly grasp the edge of the seat, shoulder width apart. Supporting yourself with your arms, slide your butt off the edge of the seat. Use your arms to lower yourself until your triceps are parallel to the ground. Then push yourself back up. Keep repeating this motion.

Calve Raises
On your toes, balance yourself on the edge of a bottom step. The soles of your feet, as well as your heels, should be hanging off the edge. Grab on to a banister or door jam for support and lower your heals toward the ground, as far as they'll go. Now, raise yourself up so that you are standing on your toes. Repeat this motion. This exercise works wonders for toning calve muscles.

For all of these exercises, start with one or two sets of 10 to 20 repetitions. As you get stronger, increase the number of sets and repetitions, as well as decrease the amount of time spent resting between sets.

You'll feel great and look great in plenty of time for summer!

The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

Economic Calendar for the Week of January 11 - January 15

It is important that you know that I always have time for you, your friends & family members & that you would like to refer my services.

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.

As your trusted advisor, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

Mortgage Success Source, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Success Source, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.

Provided to you Exclusively by THE CANTO TEAM  

For the week of Jan 04, 2010 | Vol. 8, Issue 1

Ted Canto
Senior Mortgage Consultant
Academy Mortgage
Office: 480-344-3671
Cell: 480-650-8602
Fax: 480-374-6958
E-Mail: ted@tedcanto.com
Website: www.tedcanto.com

Going the extra mile is my standard, not the exception

Last Week in Review

"We will open the book. Its pages are blank. We are going to put words on them ourselves. The book is called Opportunity and its first chapter is New Year's Day." Edith Lovejoy Pierce. And as we begin a New Year, fresh with opportunity - here's what you need to know about the last week of 2009.

The holiday shortened week had some fireworks, and not just those ringing in the New Year. The Treasury Department auctioned a whopping $118 Billion in T-Notes last week, and the added supply helped bring on some volatility in Bonds. And although the financial markets in general have been quite volatile of late anyways, the potential for increased volatility is typically greater during a holiday week. This is because trading volume levels decrease, and with fewer traders and investors pushing transactions, it opens the door for exacerbated market moves, as one large trade can cause prices to rise or fall more sharply.

In fact, volatility was present through a good part of 2009 - not to mention the last decade. As you can see in the chart below, Stocks experienced a roller coaster ride during 2009, hitting Bear market lows in March...only to soar 60% higher since March 9th.

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Chart: Dow Jones Industrial Average

Meanwhile, 2009 also brought some of the best home loan rates ever seen in the history of the US, but things have worsened over the last month. This is in part because the Federal Reserve is winding down their Mortgage Backed Security purchasing program...right at a time when there is an increased volume of Mortgage Backed Securities coming to market.

So why are there more coming to market right now? It takes about four months for home loan originations to become securities - and summer originations were light, allowing the decreased Fed purchases during the fall to still help handle the flow of Mortgage Backed Securities coming to market at that time. But loan origination volume increased in late summer and early fall, due to lower home loan rates as well as the perceived expiration of the Home Buyer Tax Credit, which has since been extended. This increased volume of home loans are now securitized and hitting the markets, at a time when the Fed is buying less.

As with any item, when there is lots of supply - in this case, the increased volume of Mortgage Backed Securities - and diminishing demand - i.e. the Fed buying less and less - Economics 101 tells us that the price of that item will subsequently go down. And as Mortgage Backed Security or Mortgage Bond prices go down, home loan rates go up, which is what we saw happen throughout December. While rates were able to end last week at about the same place as they began the week, they did worsen about .50% from the beginning of December to the end.

THE NEW YEAR IS THE PERFECT TIME FOR A FINANCIAL CHECK-UP, SO MAKE SURE TO GET IN TOUCH WITH ME TO SEE IF STILL LOW HOME LOAN RATES COULD BENEFIT YOU OR SOMEONE YOU KNOW. AND SPEAKING OF SMART FINANCIAL DECISIONS, CHECK OUT THIS WEEK'S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW FOR GREAT TIPS ON SAVING MONEY DURING THE COMING YEAR.

Forecast for the Week

The first major economic report of the New Year will come on Friday, with the Labor Department's official Jobs Report for December. Last month's Jobs Report showed that only 11,000 jobs were lost in November, despite expectations of 125,000 jobs lost. This marked the least number of jobs lost in nearly two years, since December 2007. In addition, the Unemployment Rate improved to 10.0%, when expectations were for it to remain at the 10.2% level.

Remember, though, that we need to create an additional 125,000 jobs each month just to keep up with population growth...so there is still quite a ways to go before we're out of the woods on the employment front. And while last week's Initial Jobless Claims number showed that new Unemployment Claims were reported at the lowest weekly reading since July of 2008, the holidays and large snowfall in many parts of the country may have prevented people from getting out to the unemployment office to file their claims...so this may well have skewed the reading. The bottom line is that the labor market is a key component to our economy's recovery, so both Thursday's Initial Jobless Claims number and Friday's Jobs Report will be important to watch.

Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. As you can see in the chart below, Bond prices have been on a worsening trend of late, meaning home loan rates have moved higher. As the New Year begins, remember you can count on me to be watching closely as always - and I look forward to hearing from you or any of your friends, family members, neighbors or coworkers with any questions you might have.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Jan 01, 2010)

The Mortgage Market View...

"Resolve" to Stop Wasting Money

The New Year is the perfect time to take a look at your spending habits and "resolve" to avoid wasting money where you don't have to. Here are some main areas that many of us waste money unnecessarily...and some simple steps to ensure a bright financial 2010.

Meals at the Workplace
Working Americans spend an average of $6 when they buy their lunch at work. The average cost drops to $2 when we bring our lunch from home. That's a difference of $4 a day, or $20 a week, or over $1,000 a year. Consider adding this savings to your savings account, and after just a few months you'll really see the difference add up.

Utilize the Public Library
By obtaining a library card, you can save on books, magazines, and especially DVD rentals. If you average 3 DVD rentals a month, you're spending approximately $144 a year. That's $144 that could be deposited into your bank account. For every book you check out, find out what it would have cost if you'd bought it. Deposit that amount into your account, too.

Don't be Afraid to Ask for Discounts
If you're paying bills or buying items such as airline tickets based solely on the price you're quoted, you could be wasting money. Many companies provide discounts on goods and services but only for those customers who request them. It never hurts to ask so start asking.

Save Gas
Consult the owner's manual of your car and learn about the manufacturer's recommendations for optimal gas mileage. Put the suggestions into action and see what happens. After a month, you should be able to see if you're spending less on fuel. Take the savings and stash it away.

Sell Your Junk
Come Springtime, go through your closets, garage, and CD collection. Figure out which items you no longer use. You can either hold a garage sale or locate stores which buy and sell used merchandise, and sell the items to them.

Do Away with Disposable
From razors and batteries to paper towels and plastic bags, your home is filled with products which are meant to be thrown away. Most of these disposable items have either a permanent or semi-disposable counterpart. Switching over to these more durable items can yield a savings of $4 a week or $200 a year.

Get the Most Out of Your Utilities
Many of us are overspending on our utility bills for no other reason than our own apathy. If you haven't already switched over to low-flow shower heads and toilets it's probably time to do so. Also, get into the habit of turning off lights when not in use. Did you know that most utility companies offer a free online energy audit? This way you can see exactly where you're wasting money.

Here's to a bright financial future in 2010!

The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

Economic Calendar for the Week of January 04 - January 08

It is important that you know that I always have time for you, your friends & family members & that you would like to refer my services.

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.

As your trusted advisor, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

In the unlikely event that you no longer wish to receive these valuable market updates, please USE THIS LINK or email: ted@tedcanto.com

If you prefer to send your removal request by mail the address is:

Ted Canto
5304 E. Southern Ave.
Suite 101
Mesa, AZ 85206

Mortgage Success Source, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Success Source, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.

Provided to you Exclusively by THE CANTO TEAM  

For the week of Dec 21, 2009 | Vol. 7, Issue 51

Ted Canto
Senior Mortgage Consultant
Academy Mortgage
Office: 480-344-3671
Cell: 480-650-8602
Fax: 480-374-6958
E-Mail: ted@tedcanto.com
Website: www.tedcanto.com

Going the extra mile is my standard, not the exception

Last Week in Review

"ALL GOOD THINGS MUST COME TO AN END..." Or so the popular saying goes. And last week, the Fed reiterated once again that their Mortgage Backed Security (MBS) purchase program...the program that has helped keep home loan rates low for much of the last year...will end on March 31, 2010 as previously stated. Here's the lowdown on what this means, and all the latest news impacting home loan rates and the markets.

Last Wednesday during their regularly scheduled meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Federal Reserve kept the Fed Funds Rate unchanged. But history has shown that when the Fed has left rates too low for an extended period of time, there is a price to be paid, via higher inflation. Yet if the accommodation is removed too early, it can derail an already fragile recovery. The Fed continues to walk this tightrope, trying to get it "just right."

Along with this decision, the Fed emphasized and reminded that their MBS purchase program will still end on their already revised deadline date of March 31, 2010. Why is this significant? Let's look at the numbers from last week to get an idea. The Fed purchased $16B in MBS in the latest week bringing the year-to-date total to $1.087T. This means there is $163B left to purchase before March 31, which in turn means the Fed will purchase about $11.5B on average each week through the end of the buying program. This is less than half of what the Fed was buying regularly throughout 2009 and a 1/3 less than what the Fed has been buying in recent weeks.

So why does this point to higher rates around the corner? When there is lots of supply and diminishing demand, the price of that item will subsequently go down - it's Economics 101. So, when Bond prices start to decrease from the diminishing demand of the Fed's purchases, home loan rates will naturally be likely to increase. Give me a call if you want to see how you can benefit from the current low rate environment...before it becomes too late.

In other news, there was mixed inflation data last week, as the Producer Price Index (which measures wholesale inflation) came in significantly higher than expected. However, the Consumer Price Index was reported in line with expectations, signaling that inflation remains low - at least for now. Inflation will ultimately creep back into the economy - and as the arch-enemy of Bonds and MBS - will also contribute to rising interest rates.

Housing Starts for November were in line with estimates and, as you can see in the chart below, the housing sector seems to have stabilized after bottoming out at 458,000 Housing Starts in April.

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Chart: Housing Starts

Meanwhile Building Permits, which are a leading indicator of housing construction, reached the highest level seen in the past year. This is encouraging, and the extension of the Home Buyer Tax Credit should provide an added boost for home sales over the next few months.

Bonds and rates were able to improve in the middle of the week and as a result, Bonds and rates ended the week about where they began.

THE HOLIDAY SEASON WILL EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END, BUT YOUR HOLIDAY MEMORIES DON'T HAVE TO! CHECK OUT THIS WEEK'S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW FOR GREAT TIPS TO HELP YOU TAKE GREAT HOLIDAY PICTURES.

Forecast for the Week

The markets will enter holiday mode later this week, with both the Stock and Bond markets closing early on Thursday and remaining closed all day Friday in observance of the Christmas holiday, but not before several important reports are released.

First, we'll get a read on the housing market with Tuesday's Existing Home Sales Report and Wednesday's New Home Sales Report. Tuesday also brings a read on the economy with the broadest measure of economic activity via the Gross Domestic Product Report.

There is still more news on Wednesday with the Fed's favorite gauge of inflation, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index, found within the Personal Income Report. With last week's mixed inflation news, this will be an especially important report to watch.

And Thursday could bring some big news just before the markets close by way of the Durable Goods Report, which gives us an update on consumer and business buying behavior on big ticket items that last for an extended period of time. A look at the job market will come with the Initial Jobless Claims Report. Last week's Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims numbers were higher than expected, showing that the labor market is still struggling.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and rates were able to regain some ground last week. I'll be watching to see if this continues.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Dec 18, 2009)

The Mortgage Market View...

7 Tips for Taking Perfect Holiday Pictures

Over the next week, families and friends from across the country will come together to reminisce, reconnect, and enjoy the warmth of the holiday season. When it's over, only two things will remain: the memories of those celebrations and the photographs that bring those memories to life.

Unfortunately, some holiday photos don't turn out quite as vivid or emotional as the moments they depict. But with the 7 simple tips below, you can help eliminate the disappointment of a photo gone wrong.

1. Look 'em in the eye. One of the best ways to capture the true spirit and emotion of holiday moments is to zero in on the eyes of family and friends. That means holding the camera at eye level and focusing in tightly on the twinkle in their eyes and smiles on their faces. And, when taking pictures of children or even the family pet, don't forget to lower yourself to their level.
2. Brighten up the holidays...even when you're outside. One of the most important aspects to consider in any picture is the lighting. Harsh overhead lights can cast odd shadows on a person's face. And bright lights can make a person's wrinkles or subtle flaws stand out more in the picture than they do in real life. To help reduce these negative illusions, try using as much natural light as possible. If you're indoors, ask your friends to move closer to the natural light coming in through a window and turn off your flash to capture the vibrant colors better.
   If you're outside, remember that the soft, warm light that occurs during the early morning, late afternoon, and on cloudy days is better than the overpowering mid-day sun. If you must shoot during mid-day, use your flash to help brighten faces and eliminate those unpleasant shadows from the sun.
3. Keep your distance. When you do need a flash, make sure that you know the optimal distance that your camera's flash can travel. Too often, people make the mistake of standing out of range, which can be the same as using no flash at all. For most cameras, the maximum distance between you and your subject should be approximately 15 feet (or five big steps away). But, just to be safe, you should check your camera's manual or try to stay within 10 feet to make sure your photographs don't turn out dark and dreary.
4. Don't center every image. Often, centering the subject can result in a boring or lackluster photo. Instead, try to shift your subject slightly to the left or the right. The empty space that is left in the frame will help draw the eye to the subject and add a quality of balance and interest that a centered photo cannot duplicate.
5. Don't just take photographs...direct them. Even if you're just taking a photo of a few people, take a moment to move them around to create interest and fill the frame. Also, don't hesitate to move distracting objects out of the background or to move the subjects to another part of the room altogether.
6. Get the red out. Although some cameras come with red-eye reduction features, the best way to eliminate this problem is to stop it before it starts. To do that, have your subject look toward the camera, but not directly at the lens or the flash. So, before you snap the picture, take a moment to say "look here" and point out a spot just below your camera for them to focus on.
7. Snap the picture early to capture the action. Most cameras today include a variety of features that are automatically processed before a picture is taken. That means your camera takes an extra second to process the photo and adjust its settings accordingly. So, try to snap the shot a half-a-second early.

With these tips and a little practice, your photographs will capture the vivid colors, emotions, and joy of this holiday season in a way that brings those memories to life every time you look at them.

The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

Economic Calendar for the Week of December 21 - December 25

It is important that you know that I always have time for you, your friends & family members & that you would like to refer my services.

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.

As your trusted advisor, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

In the unlikely event that you no longer wish to receive these valuable market updates, please USE THIS LINK or email: ted@tedcanto.com

If you prefer to send your removal request by mail the address is:

Ted Canto
5304 E. Southern Ave.
Suite 101
Mesa, AZ 85206

Mortgage Success Source, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Success Source, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.